Reflecting new data we have revised down our demand estimates for the third quarter of 2020 (-0.2 mb/d), with weakness seen particularly in North America (including Mexico) and India. In 1Q20, China’s demand falls by 1.8 mb/d y-o-y with global demand down 2.5 mb/d. It expects demand to increase by 5.8 million b/d in 2021. The report provides a detailed analysis of key developments impacting oil market trends in world oil demand, supply as well as the oil market balance. The immediate outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments move to contain the coronavirus outbreak, how successful their efforts are, and what lingering impact the global health crisis has on economic activity. IEA (2020), Oil Market Report - October 2020, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2020. The group’s current 2.1 mb/d of production cuts are due to expire at the end of the month. Causes of world crude oil prices and supply disruptions. "Considering the latest developments, downward risks currently outweigh any positive indicators and suggest further likely downward revisions in oil demand growth, should the current status persist," it said. ... IG Client Sentiment Index: Crude Oil (June 22, 2020) (Chart 1) Oil - … Our balances assume an increase in Libyan production from 0.3 mb/d currently to 0.7 mb/d in December. The uncertain outlook that could see the draw down of stocks falter is reflected in the fact that physical prices have weakened and this has brought down the front of the forward curve for Brent crude oil. The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. Projected oil demand in Asia-Pacific is the highest in the world, at 36.7 million barrels daily in 2020, followed closely by the Americas. - - OIL WORLD ANNUAL 2020 - - On about 730 pages the ANNUAL provides analyses and statistics of the 2019/20 world supply & demand situation and of the prospects for all major oilseeds, oils/fats and oilmeals. In the second quarter, as the situation in China improves, demand deteriorates in some other large economies, such as Japan and Europe. You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the link at the bottom of any IEA newsletter. However, two possible scenarios could change this outlook. The longer term offers little encouragement for the producers; the curve shows prices not reaching $50/bbl until 2023. The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for September, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in this cycle in June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. The price of oil shown is adjusted for inflation using the headline CPI and is shown by default on a logarithmic scale. This surely raises doubts about the robustness of the anticipated economic recovery and thus the prospects for oil demand growth. As shown in Chart 2, US oil demand peaked in 2005. Geopolitical events and severe weather that disrupt the supply of crude oil and petroleum products to market can affect crude oil and petroleum product prices. Recent developments in US oil demand tell a similar story. The world will be over-supplied with oil in 2020. The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for September, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in this cycle in June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. This chart shows how projections of changes in Saudi Arabia crude oil production results in changes in WTI crude oil prices. The oil market has been under pressure in 2020, with the spot price for WTI crude oil declining by 20% since January as the COVID-19 pandemic has caused global demand to shrivel up. Global oil demand is expected to fall by a record 9.3 million barrels a day this year as government-implemented lockdowns keep the economy at a near standstill, the International Energy Agency said. Coronavirus Data and Insights . Satellite data show a near 1 mb/d increase in Chinese stocks, reflecting slowing demand. OPEC revised down by another 400,000 bpd its forecast for global oil demand this year, expecting consumption to shrink by 9.5 million bpd over 2019 2009), which will shift the supply curve to the right and reduce oil prices. For example, oil supply may be increased through new extraction technologies or the discovery of new oil fields (Mail Online. TABLE OF CONTENTS. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value. - The supply-demand imbalance favors dwindling supplies over the coming months, a tailwind for crude oil prices. Cite Share. Oil prices fell more than 2% on Wednesday as a market surplus forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and demand worries outweighed concern over disruptions to Libya's crude output. Containment measures imposed in North America, Europe and elsewhere are expected to have a smaller impact on oil demand than those in China. In the first quarter, China suffers the most with a year-on-year drop in oil demand of 1.8 mb/d as factories shut down and large-scale confinement measures curb transportation. Brent tumbled 6.45% to settle at $27.69. See also: List of countries by Oil Reserves There are 1.65 trillion barrels of proven oil reserves in the world as of 2016. While China has taken strong measures in response to the outbreak, the situation appears to be worsening around the world, with more than 60 countries reporting cases. Long Run Forecast In the long run, which “ is a time frame in which the quantity of all factors of production can be varied ” (Parkin 2010, p.214), oil demand and supply … OPEC said worldwide oil demand was expected to increase by nearly 10 million barrels per day (b/d) over the long term, rising to 109.3 million b/d in 2040, and to 109.1 million b/d in 2045. Malaysian palm oil industry was also affected by the outbreak of the coronavirus. In 1Q20, the call is 25 mb/d, 3.5 mb/d below the group’s assumed output for the period. Strong gains in global refinery throughput in July and relatively stable runs in August and September came at the cost of steep falls in margins, which in 3Q20 saw one of their worst quarters. The implication, therefore, is that the OPEC+ countries will be free to exercise their commercial judgement when assessing future levels of production. Around the world the supply of oil far exceeds demand for it, as governments try to limit the spread of covid-19. As shown in Chart 2, US oil demand peaked in 2005. Data are far from complete but, in the first quarter, the visible decline in transport, industrial and commercial activity points to a massive drop in global oil demand of 2.5 mb/d compared with the first quarter of last year. For the first time since 2009, demand is expected to fall year-on-year, by 90 kb/d. Countries. At 100 mb/d, output was virtually flat on a year ago, with non-OPEC gains of 2.4 mb/d offsetting declines from OPEC. Travel restrictions and lower industrial activity due to the virus weighed on cracks for jet fuel, diesel and gasoil. Unlike some of her European peers, Hollub sees strong long-term demand for oil. Furthermore, oil price changes often impact the rest of the economy. The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. In February and into March, Chinese run cuts pressured the price of crude from the Middle East and West Africa in particular. First, should the global economy slow down even more, prices could fall to the USD50-55/bbl range. Our 2021 forecast is also largely unchanged at 97.2 mb/d, showing a gain of 5.5 mb/d from 2020. Six months ago leading oil producers came together, supported by an extraordinary meeting of G20 energy ministers, to coordinate massive production cuts to offset the collapse in oil demand caused by Covid-19 lockdowns and so provide life support to the oil market. We also present the final data for Jan/Dec 2019 (with comparison for the preceding 4 years) for: Demand-driven shocks are related to the evolution of global demand and as such are not expected to have an independent effect on the global economy. Europe could face a shortage of oil within the next decade, making the move to increase the use of low carbon energy even more urgent, according to a … Projections of changes in WTI crude oil prices - 70 year historical Chart exceeds for! Stakeholders within the industry reflecting weaker financial markets barrel, the lowest level since June 2017 to. Oil world monthly of 11 December 2020 is a challenging year for most which! And thus the prospects for oil as production from Libya slowed to a global emergency! The first time since 2009, demand is elastic oil supply and demand graph 2020 because future give. Oil price changes, oil price swings tend to be dramatic a year ago, with non-OPEC gains 2.4... 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